2009 the second half of the domestic automobile market analysis

     Looking back to the first half of the domestic automobile market, a number of policy stimulus warming monthly automobile market.

     January 14, the State Council executive meeting to consider and adopt the revitalization of the auto industry to adjust planning undoubtedly boosted the confidence of the market rapidly, the domestic automobile market quickly reversed in the first quarter since the second half of 2008 since the continuation of the downward trend, and in March, April, May series of one million sales mark a breakthrough. Statistics show that 5 months of this year, domestic vehicle sales were 4,837,700 and 4,956,800, an increase of 11.10% and 14.29% for the full year impact goal of 10 million to lay a solid foundation. 

     Statistics show that 5 months of this year, passenger car sales rose 15.61 percent and 21.20 percent, but commercial vehicle output grew only 0.62 percent, 1.56 percent sales decline. Passenger cars and commercial vehicles performance difference between the market. On the one hand, commercial vehicle market and the macro-economic relevance of higher degrees, on the other hand, the first half of the policy to stimulate the car market for passenger cars market. With the second half of light truck vehicle redemption in rural areas policy adjustments, to stimulate the light truck market will significantly increase; TM recently introduced policies to increase subsidies for old vehicles scope and intensity of stimulation The role of market demand for commercial vehicles will also begin to be felt. Once fully warmed up the second half of the economy, market demand for commercial vehicles will be significantly improved.

     Narrow passenger market, after several years of development, the Department of Europe and the United States, Japan and South Korea market share of the car tends to balance the market share of own brands to increase gradually, has exceeded 30% of China's auto market has become an important force. First half of this year, in the acquisition of tax and fuel tax adjustment policies introduced under the economic car products to mainly the Department of their own brands and the Korean car is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary. 

     Models at all levels, from changes in market share, the purchase of tax due to the impact of adjustment policies, the first half of A-class car market share growth significantly. And B-class cars and MPV showed declining trend, on the one hand, B-class cars and MPV's major consumer groups for small and medium-sized owners, they have a greater impact the financial crisis, the deeper, the external economic situation to deteriorate so that the part of groups purchasing power has declined markedly. On the other hand, the adjustment of the purchase of tax some B-class cars in the car when the potential users, to buy emission down towards the purchase of A-class car, but also exacerbated the B-class car sales fell. 
     5 months of this year, the national passenger car sales up 21.2 percent year-on-year increase, sales growth is the main passenger crossing with the micro-compact car, the two contributed to the increase of about 96.4%. Strong sales of the Chevrolet had five months before the emergence of the same period last year sold 10% of negative growth.

Second, the impact of domestic auto market at this stage factor analysis

     The main macroeconomic indicators appear in the second half of last year to accelerate the decline, a sign of warmer quarter, driving economic growth Troika: investment, exports and consumption both fell sharply. 4000000000000 national investment policies, will increase economic growth relies on investment in the first half of the pulling effect of the automotive market has yet to appear in the second half for the commercial vehicle market is expected to have a certain impact. 
      From the consumer point of view, due to the impact of the global economy, consumer confidence index declined, the stock market and housing market decline, residents of the property has shrunk. Reduction in income, employment, the seriousness of the situation, resulting in consumer demand, a litmus test.

     However, the development of various parts of the pattern of economic gradients lead to the existence of the rigidity of the demand for long-term, China's auto consumption is universal access to family-based period, consumers from the "clothing" of "food" needs to "live" "line" needs to upgrade.

     At the same time, various types of new cars constantly entering the market and increased consumer choice, consumer desire to have a certain stimulating effect, while prices continue to drop, increasing the possibility of consumers to buy.

     Recently, the Xinhua letter network survey, 59.7 percent of the respondents plan to buy their own during the year the first vehicle, there are 13.5% of the respondents plan to recent secondary car. Shows that the recent demand of China's automobile market remained strong.



     The survey also showed that, if sufficient funds to buy cars, 77.3% of the respondents will increase the margin of preference models to be buyers ahead of schedule. 10.2% of the respondents would be attracted to purchase short-term promotional activities ahead of time, there are 10.2% of the respondents said that if the car ahead of subsidies will increase the rate of purchase plans. Manufacturers, distributors of promotional offer at this stage of our consumers buy cars marked stimulation.



Third, the second half of the automotive market trend analysis

     Benefited from the country's macro-control policies and promote the revitalization plan, at this stage, the domestic economy is increasingly clear signs of recovery, which will greatly promote the further development of the domestic automobile market.

     China's consumer demand for automotive products will determine the rigidity of the second half of the Chinese automobile market can basically out of the shadow of financial crisis, and regional economic development pattern of the gradient determines the next 23 markets and rural markets will be the main domestic automobile market.

     In addition, rural areas with the car policy car payment subsidy funds and policies in place to benefit from the adjusted model to further expand the scope of macro news out of the rural consumers will wait to play the role of direct stimulation. Second half of the year, in addition to the introduction of TM policy rules, in the auto industry plans to revitalize the car mentioned in consumer credit regulations, urban parking facilities planning and management approach to a series of motor vehicle and protective measures to stimulate consumption, will further stabilize and promote the development of the domestic automobile market.

     Benefit from a series of policy measures, cross-type micro-displacement and small passenger cars will remain in the second half of rapid growth, and mid-size car market, or will be under TM policy to stimulate recovery. With the effect of 4 trillion in the second half of the stimulation of investment, as well as the emerging policy on the business model TM large area coverage, commercial vehicle market will also inject new vitality into.

     After the first half of the automobile market bottomed warmer, some car manufacturers have in the near future to increase the production and marketing plan, so that is an adequate supply of vehicles consumers will reduce the time to mention cars, there are many new models listed one after another so that consumers have great expectations for the second half of automobile market, consumer confidence will be more solid.

     Generally speaking, the situation in the second half of the automotive market is more optimistic, in spite of external changes in the economic environment remains uncertain factors, but the rigidity in the domestic car consumption demand coupled with the premise of national policy to encourage, the automobile industry as the country an important pillar of economic growth will continue to play a huge role.